Press Release
November 11, 2009

PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE SHOULD INCLUDE CLIMATE CHANGE
By
Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago
(Privilege speech on 11 November 2009)

Mr. President, distinguished colleagues:

Natural disasters, such as floods, typhoons, and landslides account for about 25 percent of natural disasters reported annually worldwide. The Philippines has been identified as one of the most disaster prone countries in the world, because of our geographical location. Climate change will influence Philippine weather in terms of changes in temperature, rainfall, and tropical cyclone activity. In turn, this impacts such sectors as agriculture, forestry, and water resources.

Presidential Debate on Climate Change

As we face the 2010 presidential elections, we have to recognize that one of the most urgent policy needs in the Philippines is the identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change. In fact, the upcoming presidential debates should include climate change adaptation initiatives. Hence, I respectfully challenge our presidential candidates, to identify appropriate courses of action to address the following adverse effects of climate change:

  • Sea level rise, which contaminates groundwater sources and exposes communities to harsh storm surges. Pag-Asa estimates that a one-meter rise by 2025 will flood over 5,000 hectares and displace more than two million people around Manila Bay .

  • Trends in surface temperatures. The length of the cold season has been decreasing, while that of the warm wet season has been increasing.

  • Tropical cyclones. There are fewer typhoons in January to March, while there are more typhoons in July to November.

  • Geographical trends in tropical cyclones. The rise of typhoon crossings is most pronounced over the Visayas area.

  • Typhoon damage. The probability and magnitude of damage due to typhoon disasters keep on rising. There are more people living along the coasts, riverbanks, and landslide-prone areas, and thus exposure to typhoon hazard is increasing.

  • Change in mean annual rainfall. Over the past 50 years, rainfall has been increasing over the northeastern areas, and decreasing over the south-central areas of Mindanao .

  • Downstream effects of climate change. In agriculture, dry days become drier, and wet days become wetter, thus affecting crops adversely. Moist forests are shrinking and turning to dry forests. Biodiversity losses are aggravated. Fish populations are declining. Roughly 20 percent of total power supply comes from hydroelectric sources. Changes in rainfall are intensifying reliance on imported oil and coal. The warmer wetter environment produces ideal breeding conditions for mosquitoes that produce dengue fever and malaria.

Most importantly, water shortages due to drought, saltwater intrusion, or floods will influence decision-making on investments in engineering and infrastructure.

I accept that the threat of climate change is long-term. We are dealing with a 50 to 100 year horizon. But right now, we have to know from presidential candidates what are their programs for change adaptation and mitigation with respect to the expected impacts on ecosystems, livelihoods, human health, and food scarcity.

RP Hotspot in SEA: Vulnerability Map

Fortunately, we now have the benefit of a climate change vulnerability map for Southeast Asia . It was published in January 2009 by the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), of which the Philippines is a member. Its director is a Filipina, Dr. Herminia Francisco. She is one of the two authors of the climate change vulnerability map.

Dr. Francisco and her partner Dr. Yusuf constructed an index of climate change, consisting of maps for the following risks: cyclone, drought, flood, landslide, sea level rise, and multiple hazards. They also considered population density and protective areas, as well as adaptive capacity.

The overall climate hazard map shows that the Philippines is a hotspot in Southeast Asia . Practically all the regions in our country are vulnerable to climate-related hazards, namely, tropical cyclones, floods, landslides, droughts, and sea level rise. The dominant hazards are cyclones, landslides, floods, and droughts. The human and ecological sensitivity map shows the map of population density and protected areas. One of the most densely populated areas in the map is around the Philippine national capital.

The map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia includes, not only some, but all the regions of the Philippines . The most vulnerable regions within our country include:

  • National Capital Region

  • Southern Tagalog

  • Cagayan Valley

  • Central Luzon

  • Cordillera Administrative Region

  • Bicol Province

The NCR, which is densely populated, is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards, specially cyclones and floods. In Manila , so-called informal settlements, which really means illegal or squatter settlements, at risk to coastal flooding, make up 35 percent of the population.

Philippines Highly Vulnerable to Climate Change

The map shows that major cities in the region, such as Jakarta , Manila , and Bangkok are highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly to flooding and sea level rise. The exposure of these areas to natural disasters is made further complicated by their high population densities and low existing adaptive capacities. The map also reveals that the Philippines as a whole is most vulnerable to climate change (as shown by its "redness" all over as compared to "spots of red" in other countries). This high vulnerability is due to its location, high population density, high ecological sensitivity, and low adaptive capacity.

The triple typhoons and accompanying floods that wreaked havoc in the Philippines recently are clear manifestations of the high vulnerability of the country to climate change.

Ranking by Vulnerability

The EEPSEA vulnerability ranking of provinces for the Philippines shows that Metro Manila (badly hit by typhoon Ketsana) and Benguet (ravaged by typhoon Parma ) rank first and second, respectively, in vulnerability to climate change. Let me read the ranking of our provinces:

Ranking of Philippine Provinces by Vulnerability to Climate Change

1. Manila

25. Kalinga-Apayao 50. Masbate

2. Benguet

 26. Isabela 51. Camiguin
3. Batanes 27. Zambales 52. Palawan
4. Ilocos Sur 28. Davao Del Sur 53. Agusan Del Sur
5. Rizal 29. Camarines Norte 54. Maguindanao
6. Bataan 30. Catanduanes 55. Antique
7. Batangas 31. Surigao Del Norte 56. South Cotabato
8. Bulacan 32. Misamis Occidental 57. Zamboanga Del Sur
9. Abra 33. Pampanga 58. Agusan Del Norte
10. Albay 34. Lanao Del Sur 59. Misamis Oriental
11. Quezon 35. Lanao Del Norte 60. Cebu
12. Nueva Ecija 36. Northern Samar 61. Davao Oriental
13. La Union 37. Oriental Mindoro 62. Southern Leyte
14. Aurora 38. Ifugao 63. Sulu
15. Mountain Province 39. Pangasinan 64. Sultan Kudarat
16. Tawi-Tawi 40. Leyte 65. Surigao Del Sur
17. Romblon 41. Negros Oriental 66. Eastern Samar
18. Laguna 42. Bukidnon 67. Siquijor
19. Camarines Sur 43. Quirino 68. Davao Del Norte

20. Sorsogon

44. Zamboanga Del Norte 69. North Cotabato
21. Nueva Vizcaya 45. Tarlac 70. Capiz
22. Cavite 46. Negros Occidental 71. Iloilo
23. Occidental Mindoro 47. Marinduque 72. Bohol
24. Ilocos Norte  48. Western Samar 73. Basilan
  49. Cagayan 74. Aklan

Aggravating Factors

However, the high exposure of the country to natural disasters is only part of the story. The other factors that partially aggravated the Manila flooding were:

  • Drainage networks clogged with garbage;

  • Housing and other infrastructure development impeding natural flow of water, despite existing urban planning regulations;

  • Inadequate flood control infrastructures;

  • Numerous settlements (mostly illegal occupants) along the major river networks; and

  • Degraded forestlands, among others.

Responding to the climate change challenge therefore necessitates that existing environmental laws (e.g. Ecological Solid Waste Management Act, Clean Air Act, etc); urban planning regulations; and other relevant laws should be fully implemented to complement the recently passed Climate Change Act of 2009. There is no quick fix to the climate change problem. These other concerns need to be addressed as well if our "climate-proofing" effort is to succeed. Passing the Climate Change Act is surely a move in the right direction, a necessary but not a sufficient condition to improve our resilience to climate change.

Future Climate Change Scenario

The 2007 IPCC report forecasted a 1.8-4 degrees increase in temperature by 2100. Recent estimates by the Hadley Centre Scientists presented a higher predicted increase in global temperature by 4 degrees centigrade by 2060. This will result in an even greater catastrophic impact than those predicted in the IPCC reports. Some may call this prediction akin to an "end of the world" or alarmist forecast.

This may be partly true due to the high uncertainty associated with modeling future scenarios. But the evidence of changing climates is now part of our everyday lives. Taking actions to prevent it, through global and concerted mitigation efforts, and preparing for it through adaptation is long overdue. Any further delay could only be viewed as a major political and social disservice to the human race with staggering social and economic costs.

A recent study by the Asian Development Bank said that the economic cost of climate change to Southeast Asia would be about $230 billion or about six percent of the region's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) every year by the end of this century. The losses translate to about 50 percent reduction in rice yield in major producing countries, including the Philippines , Thailand , Vietnam , and Indonesia , posing a major food security issue in the region.

But the picture is a lot grimmer than what these numbers may project. From the recent experience in the Philippines for instance, the world has witnessed how more than 8.4 million people were affected by typhoons. The death toll is still rising with increasing cases of leptospirosis and other water-borne diseases reported from the widespread flooding that was brought about by the typhoons.

The National Disaster Coordinating Committee also reported disastrous damage to houses, schools, and buildings. The threat from climate change is real. Therefore, we need a President determined to make a serious and concerted effort to prepare for climate-related disasters ahead of us.

Responses to the Climate Change Challenge

That "the world is already locked into a run-away climate change" is already a clich� in the climate change literature. This statement is supported by scientific studies, the most recent of which come from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The NOAA report stated that "the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop." This means that climate change is unstoppable but current actions - I would like to believe - can alter the rate of this change, as well as the magnitude of its impacts.

An article featured in the Herald Gazette (28 October 2009) captured succinctly the climate change message for this generation in its title: "It may be too late to stop Climate Change, but it not too late to act." The author is Bill McKibben, the founder of 350.org. This group advocates actions to bring down GHG to 350 parts per million of atmospheric carbon dioxide (current level is 390 ppm and rising at 2 ppm each year). According to the article, above the 350 level, "The Earth over the next century will continue its rapid baking: melting glaciers and polar sea ice, spurring insect-born diseases, and displacing populations threatened with drought, flooding, and rising seas, leading to about 700 million 'climate refugees' by the end of this century".

This is a good reminder to everyone that as we focus our attention on adaptation efforts, we should not lose track of the fact that we all share the global commons - the atmosphere. Hence, it is in our best interest to contribute in any way we can to reduce further the level of GHG in the atmosphere even if we expect developed countries to lead in this effort.

The other message from the NOAA study is that: "We need to act now. There is no time to waste." Adaptation can be done at various levels: individual, household, community, government units and globally. What can be done at each level is often a function of the resources available, the technical and local knowledge present, the social institutions and governance structure in place, and the policy environment acting as support or deterrent to the action. Developing an effective adaptation program must consider these factors at the minimum.

In some communities, some form of autonomous adaptation, particularly at the household and community levels, are already taking place, as documented in some studies. These include shifting the planting calendars, choice of more flood and drought tolerant crop varieties, planting mangroves for coastal protection, putting in place early warning systems for natural disasters, and many others.

Adaptation Efforts

However, there is some good news. First, the government last October 23 signed into law the Climate Change Act of 2009 (R. A. No. 9729). This law will enable the integration of mitigation and adaptation planning into government policy formulation, development planning and poverty reduction programs. With climate change already in full gear, the Climate Change Commission has a tall order to perform, because its effectiveness, or lack of it, is easy to gauge in the face of changing climates.

Second, external funding for climate change is already beginning to become available. Very recently, the government has received funding from GEF, WB, AUSAID, GTZ and UNEP, and from other agencies, to support adaptation planning and projects in the country. The main challenge to the next President is transparency, efficiency, and equity in the use of these funds.

There are even some adaptation supports targeted to specific local government units. There are several projects in the Bicol region, which is among the most vulnerable areas to climate change. The strong leadership by the local government units in this region, plays a big role in their having strong adaptation programs. Local leadership has a big role to play in the fight against climate change.

Third and finally, there is a way to reduce the burden of adaptation, given the country's good experience in community-based initiatives. The funding available for adaptation, from the government and external sources, will never be sufficient to support the country's adaptation requirements.

Relying on social groups and networks to assist in adaptation work at the local level could reduce the overall cost of adaptation. Their roles are quite critical, given that natural disasters strike with very minimal time to prepare. Social groups and networks from all walks of life, such as farmers, women, youth, church organizations, business groups, can help reach out to as many people as possible in a very short period of time.

What We Should Do

Adaptation actions include:

  • Infrastructure development such as dikes, sea-walls, tidal barriers, breakwaters, drainage construction.

  • Policy changes and enforcement, such as new building codes or land use plans.

  • Relocation or retreat options.

However, these adaptation actions require more financial and technical resources; and more government support and backing. These are hardly being done at the moment.

A review of adaptation efforts in Southeast Asia revealed that in some areas, adaptation planning, although on a limited scale, is already being integrated into disaster risk management planning. Beyond disaster planning, however, adaptation planning is just beginning to be discussed. The review also revealed that some forms of community-based adaptation projects already exist. However, these were happening on a very limited scale and were often triggered and facilitated, only because of external funding support.

What the Next President Should Do

Most importantly, the next President of the Philippines should show that he or she has developed adaptation plans that could include:

  • Early warning system

  • Community protection projects

  • Information dissemination

  • Technical training

  • Rescue and recovery activities

Improving climate resilience is everyone's concern. The next President should provide the environment for all Filipinos to be involved in making climate resilience a happening event.

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